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Week 1 Start Bench Advice (Early August Edition)

Looking 2013 Week 1 Advice? It’s already up, HERE!!!



Below is our Week 1 Start & Bench Advice for the 2012 fantasy football season.

This start ‘em and sit ‘em advice is not typical, in fact, it’s both bold and unconventional.

If you want plain and simple, you’re in the wrong place.

Let’s get to it!

Smitty’s
Week 1 Projections

Looking for our UPDATED Start/Bench Advice?

*These fantasy football projections are based on a standard PPR scoring format; only the top 6 projections are listed for each match-up

DAL @ NYG

1. Dez Bryant: 6-95re/2TDs
2. Tony Romo: 290pa/3TDs/1INT
3. DeMarco Murray: 125ru/4-40re/1TD
4. Eli Manning: 245pa/2TDs/1INT
5. Victor Cruz: 5-90re/1TD
6. Hakeem Nicks: 4-80re/1TD

IND @ CHI

1. Matt Forte: 125ru/4-40re/1TD
2. Brandon Marshall: 6-90re/1TD
3. Jay Cutler: 245pa/2TDs/1INT
4. Michael Bush: 35ru/1TD
5. Reggie Wayne: 4-67re/0TDs
6. Donald Brown: 55ru/2-11re/0TDs

ATL @ KC

1. Julio Jones: 6-125re/1TD
2. Roddy White: 5-85re/1TD
3. Matt Ryan: 285pa/2TDs/1INT
4. Michael Turner: 110ru/1-6re/1TD
5. Jamaal Charles: 45ru/4-55re/0TDs
6. Dwayne Bowe: 6-80re/0TDs

PHI @ CLE

1. LeSean McCoy: 140ru/4-40re/1TD
2. Michael Vick: 240pa/45ru/2TDs/0INTs
3. Trent Richardson: 100ru/3-30re/1TD
4. DeSean Jackson: 5-70re/1TD
5. Jeremy Maclin: 5-65re/0TDs
6. Greg Little: 5-60re/0TDs

WAS @ NO

1. Drew Brees: 333pa/3TDs/1INT
2. Jimmy Graham: 6-95re/2TDs
3. Robert Griffin III: 225pa/45ru/2TDs/1INT
4. Darren Sproles: 40ru/5-65re/1TD
5. Marques Colston: 5-70re/1TD
6. Tim Hightower: 80ru/4-30re/1TD

STL @ DET

1. Matthew Stafford: 310pa/10ru/3TDs/0INTs
2. Calvin Johnson: 7-120re/1TD
3. Steven Jackson: 105ru/4-32re/1TD
4. Sam Bradford: 250pa/2TDs/1INT
5. Titus Young: 5-70re/1TD
6. Brandon Pettigrew: 5-67re/1TD

NE @ TEN

1. Tom Brady: 375pa/4TDs/0INTs
2. Wes Welker: 7-110re/1TD
3. Ridley: 110ru/3-24re/1TD
4. Chris Johnson: 110ru/2-20re/1TD
5. Rob Gronkowski: 5-80re/1TD
6. Brandon Lloyd: 5-80re/1TD

JAC @ MIN

1. Maurice Jones-Drew: 93ru/4-30re/1TD
2. Percy Harvin: 4-60re/40ru/1TD
3. Toby Gerhart: 53ru/1-10re/1TD
4. Adrian Peterson: 70ru/2-14re
5. Laurent Robinson: 4-60re/0TDs
6. Christian Ponder: 200pa/1TD/1INT

BUF @ NYJ

1. Stevie Johnson: 6-90re/1TD
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 220pa/2TDs/1INT
3. Fred Jackson: 65ru/4-40re/1TD
4. C.J. Spiller: 45ru/5-45re/1TD
5. Shonn Greene: 95ru/1-4re/0TDs
6. Tim Tebow: 20pa/45ru/1TD

MIA @ HOU

1. Arian Foster: 101ru/4-33re/1TD
2. Andre Johnson: 6-80re/1TD
3. Matt Schaub: 245pa/1TD/0INTs
4. Reggie Bush: 65ru/4-35re
5. Ben Tate: 45ru/1-6re/1TD
6. Owen Daniels: 4-55re

SEA @ AZ

1. Marshawn Lynch: 110ru/3-22re/1TD
2. Larry Fitzgerald: 6-90re/1TD
3. Beanie Wells: 70ru/2-12re/1TD
4. Doug Baldwin: 3-65re/1TD
5. Kevin Kolb: 210pa/1TD/1INT
6. Matt Flynn: 225pa/1TD/2INTs

SF @ GB

1. Aaron Rodgers: 355pa/12ru/3TDs/0INTs
2. Greg Jennings: 6-90re/2TDs
3. Jordy Nelson: 5-82re/1TD
4. Frank Gore: 80ru/3-20re/1TD
5. Jermichael Finley: 6-70re/1TD
6. James Starks: 80ru/2-11re/1TD

CAR @ TB

1. Cam Newton: 240pa/45ru/3TDs
2. Doug Martin: 110ru/3-25re/1TD
3. Steve Smith: 6-85re/1TD
4. Vincent Jackson: 5-70re/1TD
5. Josh Freeman: 200pa/15ru/1TD/1INT
6. DeAngelo Williams: 75ru/2-12re

PIT @ DEN

1. Peyton Manning: 245pa/2TDs/1INT
2. Eric Decker: 6-95re/1TD
3. Isaac Redman: 100ru/3-25/1TD
4. Ben Roethlisberger: 275pa/8ru/1TD/1INT
5. Antonio Brown: 5-80re/1TD
6. Mike Wallace: 3-65re/1TD

CIN @ BAL

1. Ray Rice: 135ru/4-40re/1TD
2. A.J. Green: 6-125re/1TD
3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 65ru/3-30re/1TD
4. Joe Flacco: 205pa/1TD/1INT
5. Andy Dalton: 210pa/1TD/2INTs
6. Anquan Boldin: 4-65re

SD @ OAK

1. Ryan Mathews: 125ru/4-40re/1TD
2. Philip Rivers: 240pa/8ru/2TDs/0INTs
3. Darren McFadden: 85ru/4-55re/1TD
4. Antonio Gates: 5-65re/1TD
5. Robert Meachem: 4-60re/1TD

Byes: None

Stevan Ridley (@TEN)

Looking for that super-sleeper running back to start in Week 1? Well, Stevan Ridley might just be your guy!

The Patriots face the Titans on opening day, a defense that ranked 24th against the run last season.

Sure, Ridley is arguably stuck in a timeshare, but all current news indicates that Ridley will be the early-down rusher in Week 1, and if the team is in critical crunch-time, Ridley, who earned the team’s trust down the stretch in 2011, will likely be the rusher that the Patriots lean on.

Here is a 2011 refresher: Ridley had 87 rushes for 441 yards in 2011, which equates to a 5.1 yards-per-carry average. In Week 4, Ridley ran the ball just 10 times, but he managed to total 97 rushing yards. Ridley only received double-digit carries on three other occasions in 2011, and those contests consisted of Week 15, 16 and 17, at which point Ridley ran for 65, 64 and 91 yards, and that was on 11, 13 and 15 carries (which is a 5.3 YPC average over that three-game span).

So the great news? Let’s be honest, New England is likely to get out to an early lead on the Titans in Week 1. That Titans’ defense is awful against the run, and the Patriots will likely run the ball a ton after they get up big; if you ask me, all this spells 100-yard game and a solid shot at a score.

Week 1 Projections: 110 rushing yards, 3 receptions for 18 yards, 1TD


Who can get me a score?


Jonathan Stewart (@TB) &
DeAngelo Williams (@TB)

Zach: It’s tough starting either Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams right now, as Cam Newton is a rushing touchdown hog, and it’s tough to predict from week to week which of Stewy or D-Will will produce solid rushing stats.

The good news, especially for Newton owners (expect 40 rushing in a touchdown on the ground), is that the Bucs surrendered a league-leading 27 touchdowns last season. That’s 1.68 touchdowns per game, and seven more surrendered scores on the season than any other NFL defense.

Don’t bench a solid starter for either Stewy or D-Will, but if you’re in a bind and you own one of these rushers, plug ‘em in!

On a side note, Stewart, assuming he can stay healthy this season, should gain more and more fantasy value as the season moves along; he is a nice mid-season secret weapon if you can acquire him, or draft him, on the cheap.

Keep in mind that Stewart is only 25, and is a free agent next season; he will be playing this year with money on his mind, and he is a great buy-low grab in dynasty formats.

I just wanted to toss that out there.


Kevin Smith (vs. STL)

For some reason, everyone is writing off Kevin Smith as the Lions’ starting running back in 2012. He is not guaranteed anything, and neither are his fantasy owners, but at his 13th- to 14th-round ADP (and trade value), it’s hard not to see all upside and almost zero risk. Make no mistake, most everyone sees the long-term pecking order as Jahvid Best and then Mikel Leshoure (and maybe even flip-flop that); the frustrating part about that statement for Smith owners is that the Lions’ coaching staff appears to see things that way as well. What I mean by that is that Leshoure’s name is in that duo and not Smith’sSmith has reportedly looked stronger than ever this off-season, and he had some very solid moments last season (especially his 140-yard, 2TD outing in Week 11)… Leshoure is just not an attractive fantasy option if you ask me, as he is recovering from an Achilles injury and is slated for an early-season suspension. And as for Best, it’s hard to argue injury concern for Leshoure when Best cannot avoid concussions, but I stand by my belief in Best’s talent… he is arguably as gifted as a LeSean McCoy… no, I’m not suggesting Best will ever stay healthy long enough to prove this, but at his current 7th- to 8th-round ADP, I say don’t give up on him, at least not at that value (which is mostly upside and almost no risk)… In my opinion, Best and Smith are the two runners to own in Detroit, but until one stands out, it’s tough to start either, right? Not so fast! Best is a decent PPR start in Week 1, and I’m talking flex-like start, and Smith is a sneaky RB3/flex-type start as well, because I think he will lead the team in carries in Week 1, and he has the best chance to punch in a score… The touches should be there for Smith in Weeks 1 and 2… not until Week 3 will Leshoure even enter the picture, so keep the faith in Smith for now and keep an eye on the ultra-talented Best. Also, keep in mind that the Lions face the Rams on opening day, a defense that ranked second-to-last against the run last season. That Rams’ defensive unit should be much improved overall in 2012, but I doubt they will have it all put together by Week 1, and the Lions will run, run, run in the second-half.

Week 1 Projections: 110 total ru/rec yards and 1TD



Dez Bryant (@NYG)

Assuming that he is not facing any league discipline for his recent arrest, Dez Bryant could be in for a huge Week 1 outing against the Giants. This game is the first game of the week on Wednesday night, and if looking at last year’s stats, Tony Romo and gang face the league’s 29th-ranked passing defense. Not only do the Giants give up a grip of-yards per-contest, they are tied for 7th in surrendering passing touchdowns. Doubt Bryant all you want, call him a problem child, and avoid him at all costs… this only makes him cheaper for those who believe in the receiver, and it turns his trade value into the bargain variety… Look, I can understand why so many doubt this kid, I really can, but I know elite talent when I see it, and Dez has it! He has the skills to become a top 3-4 fantasy wide receiver for years and years to come… The only risk is Dez getting in trouble again down the road, but at his downward-evolving ADP of 4.08, the receiver could miss a couple games and still earn that kind of value. I’m not suggesting that he will miss any outings, my point is that earning that 4th-round value isn’t going to be difficult for the extremely-talented stud-in-the-making. If this kid lands at 4.08-type value and becomes the receiver that I believe he will become, that’s what you call a blueprint for winning a fantasy football championship! So, get ready, because the “Dez Bryant Show” will begin on September 5th, 2012. Get your tickets now, and get ready for truckloads of doubters to soon jump on board!

Week 1 Projections: 6 receptions for 95 yards and 2TDs

Most likely to rush for 150+ yards?


LeSean McCoy (@CLE)

McCoy is going up against the 30th-ranked rushing defense in 2011.

Cleveland gives up 147.4 yards-per-game on the ground, which gives McCoy the best chance for leading the week in rushing yards.

I can also see him having two total scores as well.


Most likely 100-yard rushers?

*2011 regular season stats

Ryan Mathews @OAK (*27th against run)
Matt Forte vs. IND (*29th against run)
Ray Rice vs. CIN (*10th against run)
Arian Foster vs. MIA (*3rd against run)
Stevan Ridley @TEN (*24th against run)
Doug Martin vs. CAR (*25th against run)
Chris Johnson vs. NE (*17th against run)
Shonn Greene vs. BUF (*28th against run)
Marshawn Lynch @AZ (*21st against run)
Darren McFadden vs. SD (*20th against run)

Despite tough match-ups against Miami (3rd against the run in 2011) and Tampa Bay (10th against the run in 2011), both Arian Foster and Ray Rice are still strong bets for 100 yards and a score. These two are almost match-up proof.

Ryan Mathews will make his owners proud as he earns top 4-6 running back numbers on opening day.

Matt Forte will have a field day against last year’s 29th-ranked Colts’ rushing defense; Once Chicago gets out to an early lead, Forte and Michael Bush should see a whole lot of touches.

Stevan Ridley, as Smitty highlights above, is a nice start this week. He is very underrated this year and is in a great situation with very little “true” competition.

Doug Martin has a great match-up, but will he get most of the carries, or could he be a Week 1 disappointment due to coaching decisions?

Shonn Greene is not an exciting start, but he is a safe start. Trade him after Week 1 if you can, though.

Chris Johnson should have a big day, even though he could start off hot and then slow down as TEN tries to pass their way back into the game.

The stats will be there in the end for Marshawn Lynch, even if he compiles his stat line slowly against that underrated Cards’ defense.

Comments

  1. need a LOVE button for this article!!
    best one I’ve read all day!
    BRAVO!!

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    • Thanks, Chris! Creating more start bench content than anyone out there, that was the goal! I’m glad we didn’t disappoint!

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  2. have question for you regarding a rookie draft I’m about to draft in, I have the 6th and 7th picks and Cam Newton is my QB, my running backs need reinforcements, i have gresham as my top tight end and my receivers are pretty solid. so, I’m assuming Luck, RG3, TRich, Martin and D. Wilson go top 5 based on talks I’ve had and team needs of the teams in front of me. My question to you is with the 2 picks, would you draft I. Pead with one and maybe either Fleener or Quick, who I much like you absolutely think is gonna be a beast for years to come. Also thinking about Hillman… I am leaning toward Pead and Quick right now…talk me out of it….

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  3. I go Pead and Quick without equivocation! I take both over even Wilson and maybe even Luck, but that’s me.

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  4. thanks for the reassurance…I’ve been reading your columns for a few years now and have much respect for the knowledge you bring to this hobby of ours…

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  5. Great article, very entertaining. I’m a believer in Bryant too, but hopefully his ADP will stay mid-late round 4 so I can draft him on the sly.

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    • He may continue to fall that far – for now. As soon as he has a big preseason outing, watch out, though!

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  6. i’m trying to acquire cj spiller from a guy, he wants ridley and my mid 2nd rd pick for spiller and his late 3rd…what would you do??
    also, i noticed in your rankings your not giving randy cobb too much love…you seem to be down on him more then most…why is that?

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    • I think in a keeper/dynasty format, assuming I don’t know your exact league format, etc, I like Spiller more. I like Ridley to start the season, and he could truly surprise. By mid-season, I see Spiller as a true starter and fantasy beast-like… it’s just not going to for sure be that way right out of the gate, so you have to prepare to wait on Spiller. Ridley has top 15RB upside this year, but not sure what to make for his long-term value. Spiller has top 5-10RB upside, but it may not happen right away. Those are the angles you have to look at.

      As for Cobb, he actually moved to No. 32 on our rankings, so relook at that, and I think that’s mad respect given all the mouths that there are to feed in GB this year. As for him not being listed above in the top 6 projections for that match-up, it’s hard to crack that top 6, again, with all the mouths to feed, and being another team has a shot to grab one of those six spots.

      Keep up the solid commenting, buddy. And let us know what you do with this trade that’s on the table.

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  7. turned out even better then i hoped…. gave the fella the 1.09 pick and the 2.11 pick for spiller and the 1.11….couldn’t believe he wanted that deal….thanks again for the advice.

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  8. on r.cobb, you must of just updated the rankings, because when i looked earlier he was ranked 47th i believe, behind nick toon…that’s what i thought was a bit odd

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  9. Undecided on who to start at QB week 1…Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, or Russell Wilson?

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    • Wow, tough call, and we will likely have some Russell Wilson dilemmas in the Week 1 update we will release the week days prior to Week 1 kickoff. It would be tough not to start Peyton as the safe play and Wilson as the home run play. It’s not an easy call, and I’ll try to include that exact dilemma in the update!

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