Keenan Allen vs. Sammy Watkins PPR Dynasty

Fact, Watkins is better .... Explanation, because I said so .... :-B

2014 Bold Predictions (PPR): 1. Alfred Morris will be a top 5 RB (4/21/14)

emurrell17 said:

Have we gotten away from using facts or explanations of why we think something? I mean it at least makes the conversation more thoughtful

Ugh fine. Evans is extremely young (both are), his raw production was fantastic (although his dominator rating was a little lower than I would like), he is 6'5 231 lbs 4.53 40, his height-adjusted speed score is very impressive, much more impressive than Watkins speed, and his phenom index score is fantastic (Watkins is only slightly below him). When I am evaluating guys I like to ask a) What is his best case scenario? and b) What is the probability of them reaching that scenario? a) In the case of Evans his best case scenario is some type of unholy hybrid of Jimmy Graham, Vincent Jackson, and Brandon Marshall. b) He has a reasonable chance of achieving that outcome. Overall, his crazy production, size, speed, and age make him too risky of a prospect to pass on.

Thatta boy! Those are some interesting points, where do you get these scores?

2014 Bold Predictions (PPR): 1. Alfred Morris will be a top 5 RB (4/21/14)

emurrell17 said:

Thatta boy! Those are some interesting points, where do you get these scores?

Rotoviz is my favorite stat fantasy football site, I pay for the membership though, not sure how many of their articles are free. You can just google the names for the stats if you'd like, and probably find the formulas and what is good and such. Important stats for WR prospects: Dominator Rating, Games Dominated, Market share of yds, market share of TDs, height-adjusted speed score, red zone touchdown rate, and Phenom Index.

stewss7 said:

A lot of people are going to be disappointed by Evans.

emurrell17 said:

Have we gotten away from using facts or explanations of why we think something? I mean it at least makes the conversation more thoughtful

thank you @emurrell17 I was just about to say that!

@stewss7 please explain why people will be disappointed with Evans?

Stewss doesn't think he needs to explain himself. Doesn't care what if we believe him or not. We've been down this road before

Allen.
Here's some crazy talk, or is it?
Allen reminds me of a twist of Jerry Rice and Brandon Marshall.
He's super smooth like rice with great hands and route running ability and Marshall's run after the catch skills.

^ I agree with how smooth he is ... he makes it look effortless out there - but not sure I'd compare him with Rice/Marshall. Marshall is a flat out beast after the catch ... his frame allows him to almost bully DBs and safeties. Just curious junkie ... what's your take on Watkins? He reminds me of bigger/faster Harvin ... I can't wait to see how his game translates to the NFL

if i had to chose i want the proven guy as i have them equal..ALLEN

2014 Bold Predictions (PPR): 1. Alfred Morris will be a top 5 RB (4/21/14)

bddavidson said:

if i had to chose i want the proven guy as i have them equal..ALLEN

I agree with this, they are completely even for me, but in a vacuum I'd take Allen because he is safer. If I owned Allen I would try to flip him for 1.01+ though. Allen is so smooth, but I see him as a long-term low-end WR1 or high-end WR2. Watkins has a better chance of being a top 5 dynasty pick and elite player, but also there is a chance he is a relative bust and his skills don't translate well. For me Watkins=Evans=Allen, and I'll own Evans most of the 3 because he is the cheapest.

i wont have a chance at watkins in any league of mind cant get a deal done lol..so i can only sit back andhope he struggles his 1st year and get him latter..

k0wned said:

I prefer Evans over Watkins at the moment, but they are close enough for me to flip them depending on landing spot. It matters more for some guys than others, as I think both Evans and Watkins will be fine regardless of where they end up, but smaller WRs like Cooks and Beckham I will only be interested if they go to a team with a good QB. Just my 2 cents

Sorry I don't see that at all Watkins is far better then any wr on the board... Evans is to slow to be a true stud. lot's of 6-5 guys that aren't great. I think he gets alot of love because of his height and Sammy gets some doubters because of his height. Either way most agree Sammy is head and shoulders above anyone in this draft and this draft is loaded with talent.

P.S. I would be willing to bet farm Alfred Morris isn't a top 5 ppr back ;) just my 2cents

Didnt Evans run a 4.53 at the combine? Thats plenty fast for a guy his size.

2014 Bold Predictions (PPR): 1. Alfred Morris will be a top 5 RB (4/21/14)

terroristwithtactics said:

k0wned said:

I prefer Evans over Watkins at the moment, but they are close enough for me to flip them depending on landing spot. It matters more for some guys than others, as I think both Evans and Watkins will be fine regardless of where they end up, but smaller WRs like Cooks and Beckham I will only be interested if they go to a team with a good QB. Just my 2 cents

Sorry I don't see that at all Watkins is far better then any wr on the board... Evans is to slow to be a true stud. lot's of 6-5 guys that aren't great. I think he gets alot of love because of his height and Sammy gets some doubters because of his height. Either way most agree Sammy is head and shoulders above anyone in this draft and this draft is loaded with talent.

P.S. I would be willing to bet farm Alfred Morris isn't a top 5 ppr back ;) just my 2cents

Evans speed is more impressive than Watkins speed. Pure speed is overvalued, and height-adjusted speed is more predictive for fantasy.

ok bottom line Sammy looked more dominant on tape and was more of a threat then Evans. I also think he is more pro ready and has the IT factor about him that can put him in the Uberelite... Evans is a Vjax clone which isn't bad at all, it's just not SAMMY.

I am starting to like Evans more than Watkins as well. I just think Watkins game is more comparable to Harvin and Evans to Calvin. Evans isn't Calvin but I think I like the skill set a lot. I don't like Evans more (yet anyway) but they are closer for me than most. I think Watkins should go top 3 and Evans top 6

but you are comparing Watkins to Harvin because of his playmaking but Watkins is much taller, heavier, quicker, stronger, more durable and just overall way better prospect and Calvin is far superior to Evans, only similarities is the Height/weight which doesn't mean everything.

terroristwithtactics said:

but you are comparing Watkins to Harvin because of his playmaking but Watkins is much taller, heavier, quicker, stronger, more durable and just overall way better prospect and Calvin is far superior to Evans, only similarities is the Height/weight which doesn't mean everything.

Then why did you mention that Watkins is taller and heavier than Harvin? By the way I agree with you on most of what you said though.

^^ he said height and weight don't mean "everything" but they do mean something, especially when it comes to durability in a WR that can take some serious hits... Yes the little speed guys had their day, now the DBs are fast ouside of the corners anymore.

Safeties are getting much bigger and faster, smallish WRs can't take it over the middle like the used to and survive. a 6'0" 170 lb guy will get hurt by collisions much more than a 6'5" 225 lb man will.

Well the nfl is now leting the little guys run across the middle as defenders cant tee them up anymore

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