Over/Under: targets for Torrey Smith

165 targets for Smith in 2013?
Over?
Under?

Keep in mind, Torrey had 110 targets with Pitta and Boldin rostered last year.

Under, 140 seems about right. You gotta remember Ray will get a significant bump up in targets also.

Ray Rice is a good buy low right now imo. Same with Pierce, I see them both being productive.

Wutthecrapman said:

Under, 140 seems about right. You gotta remember Ray will get a significant bump up in targets also.

140 targets is only a 15% increase... I can easily see at the very least a 25% increase which would put his 2013 targets right around 165.

Yeah, Rice will se a bump in targets as well... Lets say a 20% increase for Rice

And lets say a 35% percent increase for a combo of Dickson and Shancoe...
With the remaining 20% to Jacoby and the WR3

Under, Torrey caught 0 passes in 1st Pitt game with Clark covering him? Clark covered Boldin in 2nd game...

I will guess slightly under 145 targets.......I'm more concerned with how many he catches.

I'm saying under. Smith's game is much more vertical (ala Mike Wallace) so I don't think he suddenly becomes a ppr monster just because other targets are gone. My guess is that Ray Rice and Pierce get a bunch more catches and one of those other Baltimore WRs becomes fantasy relevant possibly.... or the entire Baltimore passing game becomes a total suckfest.

footballjunkie said:

Wutthecrapman said:

Under, 140 seems about right. You gotta remember Ray will get a significant bump up in targets also.

140 targets is only a 15% increase... I can easily see at the very least a 25% increase which would put his 2013 targets right around 165.

Yeah, Rice will se a bump in targets as well... Lets say a 20% increase for Rice

Anderson say a 35% percent increase for a combo of Dickson and Shancoe...
With the remaining 20% to Jacoby and the WR3

You also omitted Pierce, Doss and Streeter. Anyone of these players will also look to step up. Only 15%? Tell a fat person to reduce 15% of there weight, ain't so easy! lol Its a good increase for any player. Like Meast indicated, the real stat is how many catches. He'll have to learn (hopefully he has already) to stop alligatoring passes. If so the catches should shoot up. Also folks remember, Joe Flacco is throwing him the ball, he's got a strong arm and a fat wallet but he's not top 10 by no means.

footballjunkie said:

165 targets for Smith in 2013?
Over?
Under?

Keep in mind, Torrey had 110 targets with Pitta and Boldin rostered last year.

Over.

I think Rice sees and increase as well. The other role players will pick up the rest of the targets.

Wutthecrapman said:

footballjunkie said:

Wutthecrapman said:

Under, 140 seems about right. You gotta remember Ray will get a significant bump up in targets also.

140 targets is only a 15% increase... I can easily see at the very least a 25% increase which would put his 2013 targets right around 165.

Yeah, Rice will se a bump in targets as well... Lets say a 20% increase for Rice

Anderson say a 35% percent increase for a combo of Dickson and Shancoe...
With the remaining 20% to Jacoby and the WR3

You also omitted Pierce, Doss and Streeter. Anyone of these players will also look to step up. Only 15%? Tell a fat person to reduce 15% of there weight, ain't so easy! lol Its a good increase for any player. Like Meast indicated, the real stat is how many catches. He'll have to learn (hopefully he has already) to stop alligatoring passes. If so the catches should shoot up. Also folks remember, Joe Flacco is throwing him the ball, he's got a strong arm and a fat wallet but he's not top 10 by no means.

I didn't omit them... here's the breakdown of Boldin and Pitta 206 combined targets from last year:
25% increase to Smith... 52 more targets than last year... about 3 more targets a game than last year
20% to Rice... 41 more targets than last year... about 2.5 more targets a game than last year
35% to Dickson/Shancoe... 73 more targets than last year combined... about 4.5 more targets a game combined
20% to JonesWR2/WR3(Doss or Streeter or Thompson)... 41 more targets than last year combined
0% to Pierce ... he won't see a significant increase in targets, may even see less than last year
0% to WR4(Doss or Streeter or Thompson) won't see a significant increase in targets, may even see less than last year

These statistical percentages is what you merely guessing what the outcome might be in 2013 correct? Therefore there is a good chance it could be completely off also right? I just need to make sure here...

Under. I'm just not seeing a jump from 110 to 165 targets at all.

Im gonna say under

Whos_Ur_Doggie said:

Under. I'm just not seeing a jump from 110 to 165 targets at all.

your not seeing a jump in 50 plus targets?...even though they just lost over 200?....and added NOBODY....I see 170plus which is why im really starting to buy him where I can...

As per Andy Behrens,

Torrey Smith was targeted 110 times last year, and it would be a small surprise if that number doesn't jump into the 125-135 range. (Flacco has never attempted 550 passes in a season, so it seems doubtful any Ravens receiver will see 150-160 looks.)

Flacco has never passed for more than 25 TDs in any year, he's never averaged 240 yards per game, and he's never ranked among the top-16 per-game fantasy scorers at his position. He's becoming what Troy Aikman used to be — an outstanding real-life quarterback who doesn't pay the fantasy bills.

I mirror his thoughts.

FarFromHome said:

Whos_Ur_Doggie said:

Under. I'm just not seeing a jump from 110 to 165 targets at all.

your not seeing a jump in 50 plus targets?...even though they just lost over 200?....and added NOBODY....I see 170plus which is why im really starting to buy him where I can...

Sorry FFH, just not seeing it buddy. I see a slight bump for Smith but not 50 additional targets. Yes, they lost Boldin but they will also have someone on the field to replace him obviously. That player will see the ball too. I also think they have increased their offensive packages for increased TE production this year as well. With Pitta's injury, I see Dickson being more involved this year as well. Add to that an increase in receptions for Rice/Pierce and you have just about eaten up most of the targets that were received by Boldin in 2012.

Wutthecrapman said:

As per Andy Behrens,

Torrey Smith was targeted 110 times last year, and it would be a small surprise if that number doesn't jump into the 125-135 range. (Flacco has never attempted 550 passes in a season, so it seems doubtful any Ravens receiver will see 150-160 looks.)

Flacco has never passed for more than 25 TDs in any year, he's never averaged 240 yards per game, and he's never ranked among the top-16 per-game fantasy scorers at his position. He's becoming what Troy Aikman used to be — an outstanding real-life quarterback who doesn't pay the fantasy bills.

I mirror his thoughts.

not sure I would compare Flacco to Troy!
X(

Wutthecrapman said:

These statistical percentages is what you merely guessing what the outcome might be in 2013 correct? Therefore there is a good chance it could be completely off also right? I just need to make sure here...

Isn't that what this site is about? Smitty and his staff are "guessing" on their rankings and estimated fantasy point totals as well. Everyone is guessing, they could be right or wrong. To call out one person for guessing seems wrong to me because we are all guessing.

who am I to disagree with andy...but....two things that for me are factors....first the defense losing two hall of famers is set to drop down a notch...right?....I mean its hard to imagine losing what those two guys brought mentally and physically and not performing a lower level...even a little....that keeps games closer and doesn't allow them to sit on games late and forces them to throw a bit...second...okay ill take his "never attempted 450 throws in a season"...ill be modest and just give him 425 throws this year...start dividing them out...torrey...torrey...ill lower my targets and go the easy way out and say...140-170 is the range in my mind....

TDs_N_Beer said:

Wutthecrapman said:

These statistical percentages is what you merely guessing what the outcome might be in 2013 correct? Therefore there is a good chance it could be completely off also right? I just need to make sure here...

Isn't that what this site is about? Smitty and his staff are "guessing" on their rankings and estimated fantasy point totals as well. Everyone is guessing, they could be right or wrong. To call out one person for guessing seems wrong to me because we are all guessing.

Huh? oh brother... I made my "guess" in my original post if you read. It was questioned. So I basically took the route you did and said these are mere assumptions, I also pointed out two individuals whom I thought he omitted. He claims they're irrelevant, not the case imo but whatever floats his boat. Nobodies calling one out here TD and Beer, in fact I personally welcome it because I can back it any day of the week. Myself and junkies have a well documented history on not being on the same page and we express our views via posts. I may not agree with his guesses and he may not with mine but its mutual. So if big brother wants to start defending an ongoing entertaining yingamaroo I'm more than happy to oblige. But I urge you to read the full friggin post and come to a realization that this has been tit for tat for quite some time now. Heck I can sell tickets for it some day. In closing UNDER, ah marone...

huh...just for fun I was looking at qb stats for last year...I wonder if mr andy realized that flacco only had 20 less attempts then aaron Rodgers?...and that he was 14th in the league in passing attempts...kinda shatters the basis of his entire argument...figured if he was writing an article he would of put some time and looked at the numbers...guess not

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