Go big, or go home!
So, most everyone has drafted by now, and if you haven’t, well, you can clearly use this advice as well.
As we inch closer to tonight’s Cowboys-Giants Week 1 contest, many of you are still scrambling to pull off some last minute trades and waiver moves. There is nothing wrong with this… last minute scrambling doesn’t mean that you didn’t draft well, it simply means that you are on the ball!
So, here are six burning questions that should help you prepare for the upcoming 2012 fantasy football season.
1. Who is this year’s Victor Cruz?
In case you’re new to DraftCalc, or our content, Victor Cruz was one of my Top 10 Bold Prediction Breakouts last year… Probably the most-asked question I get relates to me predicting the next Cruz. Well, this year I have it narrowed down to three names, however, none of these guys play receiver. Note, these are bold… I’m not predicting the obvious here, the point is investing in players at a low cost in hopes that they emerge like Cruz did in 2011. So, in bold fashion, here are my top three:
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#1 Russell Wilson – This kid is the real deal, and if you think I’m crazy for having him listed as one of my biggest breakout candidates entering 2012, well, then you’re going to think I’m beyond nuts when you see (to your left) that I have him ranked No. 6 overall for fantasy quarterbacks heading into the 2012 fantasy football season. Sometimes in fantasy football you don’t have a lot to go on, and you have to make predictions and projections based on more gut than fact. This is one of those scenarios, and I’m admitting that this is a risky and bold call. Still, I see the talent in this passer, and even though he plays a different kind of football, his rise reminds me a lot of Kurt Warner’s in 1999, when he went from back-up to starter during the preseason. |
Yes, Wilson plays like Cam Newton, and most will compare the two later on during the season, but like Warner, Wilson wasn’t expected to be the team’s starter until the 11th hour. When I watch Wilson play, these are the things that instantly come to mind: Timing, Cam Newton, accurate, good decision-making, leader.
Not convinced? Read more on him here, and watch these highlights here.
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#2 Jacquizz Rodgers – I have all kinds of content written all over the site about Jacquizz Rodgers, so read up here, here and here. The bottom line is this… Rodgers will immediately play a Darren Sproles-type role right out of the gate in 2012, and that means he will be flex-worthy in most leagues to start off the season (if not low-end RB2-like)… the key here is that once Michael Turner begins to wear down, and I firmly expect that he will, that’s when Rodgers can go from nice looking rags to riches! |
#3 C.J. Spiller – Like Jacquizz Rodgers, C.J. Spiller could be slow out of the gate, as his 2012 fantasy football success depends on his situation. While Freddy Jackson is sure to kickoff the season as the Bills’ top fantasy back, he is 31. He will start off looking solid, know that, and don’t give up on Spiller because of that… if anything, Jackson doing well out of the gate just goes to show that the Bills’ offense is built around the runner, and Spiller will go nuts once inserted into that Buffalo starting line-up! As for Jackson and his probable decline, read here on how unlikely a runner is to play elite football at the age of 31. For more on why I love Spiller this season, read here, here and here.
2. What players should I target now via trade before it’s too late?
A.J. Green – This kid has top 1-3 fantasy wide receiver upside in 2012, but after a semi-quiet preseason out of both Green and Andy Dalton, many are questioning Green’s potential this upcoming season. Strike now! Go trade for him, and trade for him as a third- to fourth-round talent, because that’s where Green would fall if you held a draft right now.
Jared Cook – This up-and-coming tight end could very well be the next breakout tight end! Now is a great time to buy!
Dez Bryant – You have half a day to go get this guy before he goes nuts. If he happens to have a bad Week 1, it happens, this advice carries over to Week 2!
Russell Wilson – For all of the reasons mentioned above, go get him now before he drops madness on fantasy worlds!
3. What players should I avoid this year/trade away?
Steven Jackson – Trade on the high if he has a great first couple weeks of the 2012 fantasy football season. He has some serious miles on his wheels!
Michael Turner – He looked awful during the second half of the 2011 fantasy season, and his grip of 1-yard touchdown runs have many remembering a strong season. He has lost a step, if not two!
Frank Gore – Tons of miles – Kendall Hunter is a nice sleeper this year by the way!
Maurice Jones-Drew – Holding out often leads to injury, and mix in that he was already on a lot of people’s “avoid” lists. We could be a year early on predicting his downfall, I admit that, but why not error on the side of caution if the selling price is right (via trade)?
Fred Jackson – As said above, he is 31… Read here why the odds are stacked against him this year.
Marshawn Lynch – Call this one more of a gut instinct, but I say avoid given the cost, and trade high if you can.
4. What NFL team will turn heads this year?
Seattle – This team is going to impress and exceed all expectations. I predict they win their division… sorry San Fran fans!
Buffalo – Despite being in New England’s division, the Bills will win a wild card spot and exceed all expectations.
5. What runner not named Rice, McCoy or Foster has the best chance of finishing the season as the No. 1 fantasy football rusher in 2012?
Darren McFadden – Yes, there is all kinds of injury risk with this stud, but there is no denying his ability to be the best back in football if he does in fact play 16 games. I think he plays all 16 in 2012!
6. What deep, deep sleeper runners have the best chance of being excellent RB2 runners this year?
David Wilson, Kendall Hunter, Peyton Hillis, Ben Tate (let’s hope not, though), and of course C.J. Spiller and Jacquizz Rodgers.
Great write up!
Thanks, buddy!
Yet another reason why Draft Calc stands above the rest in the industry. Go bold or stay behind the curve.
Thanks, Doggie!
Good write up Smitty. How much do you consider SOS when making predictions/projections? I’ve used this for years with mixed results.
Curious to see if you or someone you know has done a write up comparing pre-season SOS by position to year end performance.
Spiller has 23rd toughest schedule for RBs. No cause for concern?
It’s considered, but defenses change so much, even defenses that were poor last year have improved, and good defenses have dropped off a bit. But, yes, it is factored in. I use defensive stats more so in start bench advice once 2-3 weeks have gone by.
You got me thinking on Wilson. Should I start him or Matt Ryan?
I have Ryan in a league where I own Wilson. Wilson is in my line-up.
Thanks man and great site!
You know it! Thanks for being a part of it!
I posted a topic in the “Redraft Only” section. I titled it something along the lines of “Tweak This Roster….Or Leave It Be?”. Any chance you could add your thoughts to it Smitty? I would very much appreciate it.
I would imagine you are getting some good advice in that thread you posted. I will go take a look when I get a chance.
Trade proposal:
I give up: Matt Forte and Vincent Jackson
I receive: Doug Martin and AJ Green
Only hesitation is Martin may not produce…
and should i wait to propose or make it ASAP?
I’d jump on the Martin and AJG side of this deal. I would make this offer before AJG blows up this year.
Thanks for the advice doggie. Im gonna see if I can make that happen
Hey Smitty,
In a 10 team non ppr, nonkeeper, start 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, RB/WR
Would you drop MBush for RWilson?
QB: Stafford
RB: Foster, DMurray, KSmith, MBush, MJD, JRodgers, DWilson
WR: DBryant, Wallace, Garcon, SJohnson
Seems like a no brainer, but then again tough to give up a solid RB like Bush who could be flex worthy even if Forte is playin and if Forte goes down…!
Thanks, man!
GoPack
Wilson would sit behind Stafford o your roster but with his propensity for injury, I would love having Wilson as my QB2. With your depth at RB, I would consider dropping Smith over Bush to acquire Wilson. Nice roster!
Thanks for the feedback, Doggie!
Dont you think that KSmith will continue as the RB1 in Det? Best is out and Leshoure is comin off the achilles and is unproven both in ability and explosiveness after that injury.
I guess my thinking was looking at how good KSmith played (WHEN healthy), he was keeping over Bush who is the handcuff.
As long as Smith stays healthy, yes, I think he remains the RB1 in Detroit. However, I just don’t trust that he will remain healthy and that will cause Detroit to look for another RB outside of their current roster as they are reportedly already doing. Bush on the other hand can carry the full load and is much healthier IMO. He could replace Forte in the Chicago offense and produce very nice numbers.
Your RB’s are sweet and you most likely would never start either of those RB’s so it’s more preference for me. I just have Bush as the better RB between the two so I would drop Smith to get Wilson. Good luck buddy!
Trying to figure out the lineup for this week
Rb Lynch , Turbin, Mendenhall, Hillis, M Bush, De Williams, Tate
Wr B Marshall, E Decker, M Wallace
I need to start 2 rbs and a flex was leaning towards De. Williams since Stewart looks to be out. For the 2nd I like Hillis if Lynch cant go.
We start 2 wr’s so I think B Marshall and E Decker
For the flex what should I do was thinking a Rb. If lynch plays will he be limited you think I do have turbin.
If I do this I am sitting M Wallace which stinks but cause of holdout maybe this week is the week to sit him.
Would you trade
Deangelo Williams and Ben Tate for W Mcgahee and J Cook
I have only 1 tight end I am week with Celek so that gives me an option. Thanks
Hey Mike – If I had your team, I would start the following players based on your starting requirements.
RB – Lynch (or Turbin if Lynch is scratched) & DWill
WR – BMarsh & Wallace
Flex – Decker
Also – I don’t like that trade for you. Keep Tate and try to upgrade using other players (DWill, Hillis, Bush, etc….)
Good luck!