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Week 4 Start and Bench Advice (Weekly Projections)

Below is our Week 4 Start & Bench Advice for the 2012 fantasy football season.

This start ‘em and sit ‘em advice is not typical, in fact, it’s both bold and unconventional.

If you are looking for plain and simple, or a “play it safe” analysis, you’re in the wrong place.

Let’s get to it!

Smitty’s
Week 4 Projections

*These fantasy football projections are based on a standard PPR scoring format; only the top 6 projections are listed for each match-up

CLE @ BAL

1. Ray Rice: 120ru/4-45rec/2TDs
2. Trent Richardson: 70ru/3-25rec/1TD
3. Torrey Smity: 6-90rec/1TD
4. Joe Flacco: 260pa/2TDs/0INTs
5. Anquan Boldin: 5-65rec/0TDs
6. Greg Little: 5-65rec/0TDs

NE @ BUF

1. Tom Brady: 325pa/3TDs/1INT
2. Rob Gronkowski: 6-90rec/1TD
3. Wes Welker: 6-90rec/1TD
4. Stevan Ridley: 80ru/3-25rec/0TDs
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 290pa/2TDs/1INT
6. Stevie Johnson: 5-85rec/1TD
*F-Jax to have 80ru/3-20/1TD if plays

SF @ NYJ

1. Frank Gore: 70ru/3-25rec/1TD
2. Vernon Davis: 5-65rec/1TD
3. Alex Smith: 235pa/1TD/0INTs
4. Mark Sanchez: 220pa/1TD/1INT
5. Santonio Holmes: 4-40rec/1TD
6. Shonn Greene: 65ru/1-5rec/0TDs

SEA @ STL

1. Russell Wilson: 240pa/55ru/2TDs/1INT
2. Sam Bradford: 270pa/2TDs/1INT
3. Danny Amendola: 6-95rec/1TD
4. Marshawn Lynch: 90ru/3-30rec/1TD
5. Golden Tate: 5-80rec/1TD
6. Steven Jackson:42ru/2-8rec/1TD

CAR @ ATL

1. Cam Newton: 300pa/40ru/3TDs/1INT
2. Matt Ryan: 300pa/2TDs/0INTs
3. Julio Jones: 6-110rec/1TD
4. Steve Smith: 6-90rec/1TD
5. Roddy White: 6-75rec/1TD
6. DeAngelo Williams: 75ru/3-25rec/1TD

MIN @ DET

1. Matthew Stafford: 300pa/3TDs/1INT
2. Calvin Johnson: 5-100rec/1TDs
3. Adrian Peterson: 110ru/2-10rec/1TD
4. Mikel LeShoure: 105ru/1-6rec/1TD
5. Percy Harvin: 20ru/4-65rec/1TD
6. Kyle Rudolph: 4-55rec/1TD

SD @ KC

1. Jamaal Charles: 100ru/4-40rec/1TD
2. Philip Rivers: 235pa/2TDs/1INT
3. Antonio Gates: 6-90rec/1TD
4. Dwayne Bowe: 5-80rec/1TD
5. Matt Cassel: 210pa/1TDs/2INTs
6. Ryan Mathews: 70ru/2-10rec/0TDs

TEN @ HOU

1. Arian Foster: 110ru/4-40rec/2TDs
2. Andre Johnson: 6-100rec/1TD
3. Jake Locker: 265pa/2TDs/1INT
4. Matt Schaub: 255pa/2TDs/1INT
5. Kenny Britt: 6-90rec/1TD
6. Chris Johnson: 70ru/1-5rec/0TDs

CIN @ JAC

1. A.J. Green: 6-100rec/2TDs
2. Maurice Jones-Drew: 90ru/4-45rec/1TD
3. Andy Dalton: 255pa/2TDs/1INT
4. BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 110ru/2-11rec/1TD
5. Andrew Hawkins: 5-90rec/0TDs
6. Justin Blackmon: 4-65rec/0TDs

OAK @ DEN

1. Darren McFadden: 100ru/4-55rec/1TD
2. Peyton Manning: 240pa/2TDs/1INT
3. DeMaryius Thomas: 6-70rec/1TD
4. Eric Decker: 5-70rec/1TD
5. Carson Palmer: 245pa/1TD/1INT
6. Denarius Moore: 5-55rec/1TD

MIA @ AZ

1. Larry Fitzgerald: 5-95rec/1TD
2. Kevin Kolb: 220pa/1TD/1INT
3. Ryan Williams: 75ru/1-7rec/1TD
4. Daniel Thomas: 55ru/2-8rec/1TD
5. Ryan Tannehill: 210pa/1TD/1INT
6. Brian Hartline: 5-55rec/0TDs

WAS @ TB

1. Robert Griffin III: 275pa/65ru/3TDs/1INT
2. Doug Martin: 99ru/2-12rec/1TD
3. Fred Davis: 5-65rec/1TD
4. Josh Freeman: 225pa/10ru/1TD/1INT
5. Vincent Jackson: 4-70rec/1TD
6. Alfred Morris: 55ru/1-7rec/1TD

NO @ GB

1. Aaron Rodgers: 310pa/3TDs/1INT
2. Drew Brees: 300pa/2TDs/1INT
3. Jimmy Graham: 5-90rec/1TD
4. Greg Jennings: 5-80rec/1TD
5. Jordy Nelson: 5-70rec/1TD
6. Lance Moore: 5-75rec/1TD

NYG @ PHI

1. LeSean McCoy: 90ru/4-50rec/1TD
2. Eli Manning: 290pa/2TDs/1INT
3. Victor Cruz: 5-90rec/1TD
4. Andre Brown: 75ru/2-15rec/1TD
5. Michael Vick: 220pa/40ru/1TD/1INT
6. Ramses Barden: 4-55rec/1TD

CHI @ DAL

1. Tony Romo: 300pa/2TDs/1INT
2. DeMarco Murray: 100ru/4-30rec/1TD
3. Brandon Marshall: 6-90rec/1TD
4. Dez Bryant: 5-90rec/1TD
5. Michael Bush: 70ru/3-22rec/1TD
6. Miles Austin: 4-65rec/1TD
* Forte to have 70ru/4-40ru/1TD if plays

Byes: Colts, Steelers


Kenny Britt (@HOU)

Kenny Britt has been eased back into action since his Week 1 suspension. He played a little in Week 2, pulling in 1 reception for 5 yards, and in Week 3 against Detroit, he progressed to 6 receptions for 55 yards. The high-end fantasy WR2 skill set is in there somewhere, it’s just a matter of when he is capable of going full-go. Britt’s slow start is only natural coming off an ACL tear, and it’s almost good (for the long-term) he hasn’t rushed into action, as not rushing ACL recoveries can often prevent setbacks. I’m fairly confident that the Britt we all grinned ear-to-ear about in Weeks 1 and 2 of last year (5/136/1TD and 9/135/1TD) is about to show up… and I think it could all start in Week 4.

Week 4 Projections: 6 receptions for 90 yards and 1TD


Runner-Up: Jacquizz Rodgers received more carries than any other Falcon in Week 3. His time could be on the horizon!



BenJarvus Green-Ellis (@JAC)

I’m reaching a bit calling this the monster start of the week, but that Jaguars rushing defense is 3rd-to-last in the league, surrenders 154 rushing yards-per-game (4.4 a pop), and has surrendered 5 rushing scores so far in just three contests. Green-Ellis feels like a lock for 100 yards and a score, and he might surprise us all with a little more receiving action than usual in this one. Our boy Goldy called Green-Ellis out in Week 2, so, so this is the second time the runner has made one of our featured write-ups inside our DraftCalc Start Bench Advice!

Week 4 Projections: 110ru/2-11rec/1TD

Looking For Week 4-Only Ranking?

View these Weekly Line-Up Rankings here (week 4 only, and we have both PPR and Non-PPR).

Comment Below! Get Some Week 4 Advice!

NOTE: JRMRRT, Whos_Ur_Doggie, bddavidson and Mile_High_Man will be the contributors/moderators answering the comments below, as most all of my (Smitty) Week 4 thoughts can be found above in the projections listed… these fine folks will provide some much-needed and highly-recommended variation to all of your weekly line-up dilemmas.

Comments

  1. You obviously bust your butts to get this article out before all other sites get theirs out. Much appreciated!
    What do we make of Dez? At some point don’t we just have to acknowledge that despite his athleticism and great situation that he and Romo and their offense make for inconsistent production? Sure, if I start Ced Ben at flex instead of him this next week Dez will get a TD and 100 yards. Of course, I thought that the last 3 weeks…

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    • Good question. I can only say I hope he just stays on the field so he can start proving me right. Also keep in mind as Austin gets hurt, Dez will see increased targets. Austin’s hammy is as thick as a piece of paper, and while you’d think double teaming would hurt Dez, I think the options in DAL are solid enough Dez will respond and do well.

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  2. I have been hoping your predictions on Justin Blackmon will turn out, but for now for whatever reason the guy cant catch a cold!

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  3. Just added this piece to the “Crazy-Bold” Start of the Week section:

    Runner-Up: Jacquizz Rodgers received more carries than any other Falcon in Week 3. His time could be on the horizon!

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    • Is it time to dump Shonn Green for Rodgers? He hasn’t touched the field for me yet but he occupies my final rb slot and he has again failed to live up to the hype.

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  4. Smitty,

    ROS of yr…
    non ppr

    JRodgers or RWilliams (if can he take over/keep lead job?)

    Thanks
    GoPack

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  5. Going to be hard for AJ Green and Hawkins to catch three touchdowns between them, since you only have Dalton throwing for two TDs himself.

    Unless you’re expecting another Sanu to Green connection, of course.

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  6. What’s up guys? DC Nation 2 — Spiller has gone down for me. Of these three, who would you start?

    FJax, Leshoure, & Ridley

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  7. Stafford (if starting but less than 100%) over Locker?

    Also, best option for next week and beyond?
    Cardinals D (Mia, @StL, Buf, @Min, SF, @GB, bye)
    or
    Falcons D (Car, @Wsh, Oak, Bye, @Phi, Dal, SD)
    to go with my
    Bills D (NE, @SF, @Ari, Ten, Bye, @Hou, @NE) – so definitely week 8 and possibly week 4 and 10 replacement.

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    • Stafford, assuming he plays. You can’t sit Stafford if under center IMO.

      AZ, they are playing mean football, and MIN, MIA, STL, all teams capable of turning the ball over IMO.

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    • Bennett’s season so far: 40/1, 72/1 and 73/1… you could argue Gates, but harder to argue that sitting Bennett is warranted.

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  8. I have to drop either Jaquizz, Ryan Williams, or Peyton Hillis. I’m actually thinking Hillis. Agreed?

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  9. Hey Smitty I have a trade question for you… I have MJD and i was offered Wallace and Forte for MJD. Standard format but the kicker here is that RBs get an 8 point bonus at 100 yards and WRs get a 5 point bonus at 100 yards… I start 3 RBs i have MJD, S-Jax, ALF, and Shonn Greene… Start 2 WRs i have Nicks, Holmes, and D. Moore… Do you think that this is good trade for me to upgrade my WR core? or do you think I should just stick with MJD and bank on that 100 yard bonus more times then not?

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    • Hello rich..this is another excellent question that i say take the deal..but for more detailed feed back post this question in our Forum you will get more responses to answer your questions.

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  10. i have a trade question for u.
    10 team ppr league. this is my team:

    qb rg3/romo
    rb foster/sjax/fjax/morris/mcgahee/tate
    wr cruz/a.brown/dez bryant
    te t.gonzalez/pitta
    k hanson/tucker
    d/st sea/atl

    since im deep at rb. im thinking of trading fjax for greg jennings. what r ur thoughts? thanks in advance.

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    • Hey plumberJoe i would trade f jax for jennings. Take this trade question to the forum and get more responses..

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  11. For a PPR league who should start in a flex spot. Ridley RB/Denarious Moore WR.

    Or 3 RB MJD, Gore, Ridley

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  12. Hi Smitty,

    Carolina has given lot of points to RBs so far this season, so don’t you think Turner and Rodgers have a good chance to score some points against Carolina this week?

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    • Hey Raj, this could be the coming out party for rodgers if they get a lead and decide to use him as he was in the preseason..

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  13. I am in a standard non-ppr league. My running backs are Ryan Mathews, BGE, Mikel Leshoure, Ben Tate, and Demarco Murray. I can only start 2. Who should it be?

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  14. Hey guys,
    I was wondering if you guys can help me figure out who to start at TE and RB. For TE I have pitta and pettigrew. For my RB I have foster, spiller, Ryan Williams, quizz Rodgers, Ridley, and Donald brown. It’s ten team standard league. RB TE and wr get 6 points when they get 100 yards. Thanks

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  15. Spiller’s injury puts me in a bind for my flex position in a non-ppr league. I have the decision to make in starting one guy out of the following:

    DeAngelo Williams (@ ATL), Jacquizz Rodgers (vs CAR) or Mike Williams (Wash)

    Great work on the site, It’s the reason i’m sitting at 2-0-1 in my league with Spiller, Julio & AJ

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  16. Hey guys, great website,

    I have two spots to play these 3 guys in a PPR league: T. Richardson, R. Mathews, and D. Amendola. Which two would you guys start.

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    • Hey Sluggs…I’d probably go with Mathews and Amendola. T Rich has a tough match-up vs Balt but then again…so does Amendola vs Seattle. GL.

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  17. Hi,

    Can you pick three out of these four?

    Murray, Martin, D. Thomas (MIA), Lance Moore

    Thanks!

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  18. Hey John…I’d go with Murray and Martin. Tough to say with Thomas not knowing if Reggie Bush is going to play. If PPR then I might substitute Moore for Murray as Murray has a tough match-up.

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  19. Thanks JR. That’s how my lineup is set now. Murray going against the Bears D has me a little nervous and I need a win this week. The guy I’m playing is 3-0, I’m 1-2 and we are in same division. Need to set him back a little bit and keep myself in the hunt for the playoffs!

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  20. Hey, guys. Your thoughts on WR3. I am pretty decently stacked at WR for a 14 team league, PPR. I am starting Fitz and AJGreen as 1 and 2, but I am up in the air for the 3 spot. Nicks or Hankerson?? Looking at matchups, I think I like Hankerson here, but it is hard to bench a healthy (at least rested) Nicks…

    Also, would you trade to upgrade RB? I traded CJ?K for Fitz just before this past weekend… Lucky me. My RB1 Reggie Bush, 2 Mikel LeShoure ATM. I also have stashed Powell, Hunter, Ball, Draughn. Who should I target with my trade IYO? Thanks!

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    • welcome Timmy B, i would always start Nicks if he plays over Hanky. as far as the trade take it over to the forum so you can get more detailed responses..

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  21. Looking for another running back as a back up for bye weeks and in case of injury, my league has left them thin. I have D Martin, and Murray. Bilal Powell and Shaun Draughn are the only legit running backs available. Also, thinking about dropping Cobb for Jerome Simpson as my flex? Any thoughts?

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    • Hello Blake i think Powell will have the better chance to over take the back in front of him, Simpson would be a nice add..

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  22. Just found your site, and love it! Wondering, rest of season, non-PPR, MBush or Leshoure? And then, pick 1 to start this week: MBush, Leshoure, AMorris, McGahee?

    Thanks!

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  23. Who would you rather start as your RB2 this week, Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams?

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  24. Just traded Daniel Thomas and J. Rodgers for Chris Johnson straight up. Smart or foolish? I already have Rice and MJD.

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    • Hey DJ great question. It is tough to rate CJ at this point. He has shown little effort and heart IMO. I probably would have keep rodgers as i see his load increasing as the year goes on but that being said If CJ gets his act together which is a big if could be a steal..but watching the past 1 1/2 he just doesn’t seem to care since he got paid..for more input take this over to the forum and the guys will give there input on CJ..

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  25. hey smitty and all,

    great stuff. Thanks for what you do every week.

    Need help w/ WR-2
    WR1 – Cruz
    WR2 – Colston, Amendola or Moore.

    RB1 – Charles
    RB2 – Sproles if Spiller and FJax are out.
    Flex – M . Bush

    Thanks

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  26. PPR Redraft. The guy with Chris Johnson is trying to offload him on me for Danny Amendola. The trade machine says yes, but common sense says no. What do you guys say?

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    • if you want to take a chance on cj for amendola and dont need amendola might be worth the gamble but if there is a chance you start amendola i wouldnt do it..

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  27. Undecided with my flex and rb options…Vincent Jackson, Andre Brown, mikel Lashoure, and Alfred Morris. I have to fill on 1 Rb and a flex…what do ya think Smitty?

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    • welcome connor, i would start leshoure, and v jax, bucs have a very stout run defense this year and brown maybe in a timeshare with Bradshaw.

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  28. I’m contemplating switching Stevie Johnson with Jacquizz for flex. Carolina has been very friendly to running backs so far and this can be Rodger’s breakout game. Do you agree?

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    • if you need to gamble for a big day then rodgers could deliever but it is a gamble. safest bet is s johnson.

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  29. I need help at flex.

    I have Dez Bryant, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kenny Britt

    I was thinking of dropping Quizz or Britt and pick up Jerome Simpson off waivers. Can you help please.

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    • hey 1wibadger, they all have questions britt could have the biggest ceiling but also the lowest floor, rodgers will be feast or famine as well, Dez should be the safest play.i wouldnt drop britt nor quizz unless you are hurting for wr help then i would look at quizz and then keep simpson on the WW..

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  30. Is Christian Ponder worth picking up off waivers. I have Michael Vick as my starter and Andrew Luck as my back up.

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  31. Can you help with my line for week 4. Standard format

    QB: Matthew Stafford, Jay cutler
    RB: Fred Jackson, Daniel Thomas, Shaun Draughn, Willis McGahee
    WR: Percy Harvin, Austin Miles, Torrey Smith(already started),Hakeem Nicks
    TE: Rob Gronkowski
    K: Cundiff
    Def: Lions, Patriots

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    • stafford if he plays, f jax if he starts,and mcgahee if he starts the others are tossups,harvin,nicks,lions

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  32. You are projecting a big week for Cam Newton…you’re not scared of the 2nd ranked Falcons pass defense?

    Thanks!

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    • we here at draftcalc just think Cam is that good. All qbs have off days look at rodgers. We do still believe in Cam and yes we see a bounce back week.

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  33. My teams a mess. Though I am 2-1. Need some flex help. 10 team standard league.

    QB – Rodgers
    RB1 – T Richardson
    RB2 – Andre Brown
    WR1 – Roddy White
    WR2 – Denarius Moore
    TE- Pitta (Goose egg. Ouch)
    D – Sea
    K – Mason Crosby

    Options for flex.
    Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt, Jaquizz Rodgers, Matt Forte, Antonio Gates.

    I screwed up not starting Gates. I wanna start Forte but not sure if hell play or in what capacity. Since Dez also plays Monday I thought about starting him then I have the option to play Forte while getting info all the way to gametime. Any thoughts?

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    • hello branchtan, that ia an excellent problem to have..i would have thought pitta would put some points as well. I like forte if he plays,followed by britt and Dez. so what till monday night to see if forte doesnt play and then insert Dez isnt a bad pla. i say do it. if britt was totally healthy i say roll with him but with a backup plan i would wait and see.

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  34. Hi,
    In a 12-team non-PPR, I need to choose my flex from: RBush (@ AZ), SJax (vs SEA), or Tate (vs Tenn). What do you think? Thank you!

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    • welcome Janna, i would look at tate vs titans as i expect a big day for both foster and him. titans havent stopped a rb all year and now they get one of the best tandems in the league. the other two are just not healthy and have very tough matchups.

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  35. The Guru! Who do I start this week: Alfred Morris or Ryan Williams? Any ideas who gets more yards? Thanks!

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  36. 10 team ppr league. this is my team:

    qb rg3/romo
    rb foster/sjax/fjax/morris/mcgahee/tate
    wr cruz/a.brown/dez bryant
    te t.gonzalez/pitta
    k hanson/tucker
    d/st sea/atl

    i had pitta as my flex n got a big donut from him. my question is who do i use as my rb2? i am already starting foster. thanks in advance.

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    • with all the health issues with ur starters i play f jax if he suits up then morris but he does face a tough def.. tate wouldnt be a bad play either but dnt know if you want start both foster and tate.tough call with the injuries..

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  37. Whaddup Smitty! Thanks for all the advice so far. Using your rankings, I was able to draft a pretty solid team. My question is: Should I stick with Russell Wilson as a QB2 or pick up someone like Bradford, Palmer, or Ponder (who are all, surprisingly, available)?

    I’m leaning towards dropping Wilson for Ponder, but I know you have Wilson ranked high on your upside chart…

    The rest of my lineup looks like this: QB-Rodgers, Wilson, RB-Murray, T.Richardson, Spiller, WR-S.Johnson, D.Bryant, V.Jackson, L.Moore, D.Amendola, J.Simpson, TE- Hernandez, Pitta

    Thanks man,

    -Gabe

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    • hey Gabe , great question we are high on wilson here but he is a rookie and played against some pretty good defense so far. if this is dynasty i would stick with wilson but pickup dalton as well if you got one you can drop. if redraft i might roll with dalton but look over rodgers bye week and chose whichever has the better matchup of those qbs. I doubt you will start either one over rodgers..

      Oh by the way nice team you drafted..

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  38. Thanks bdd. This is a redraft &, based on the week 10 matchups, my options look like this:

    Wilson vs. NYJ
    Ponder vs. DET
    Bradford @ SF
    Palmer @ BAL

    Dalton is unavailable, & I think Ponder looks the best for Rodger’s bye week.

    Should I pull the trigger on Ponder & drop Wilson? Or is Wilson’s inevitable upside worth hanging onto for trade value at some point?

    Thanks again

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    • sry gabe i meant ponder not dalton..lol..do you have room for both?i do like ponder matchup better..but i may wait and see how the new jets backfield works out with revis gone that could be a game to keep an eye on..

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  39. Guys,

    Struggling for final flex spot this week:

    S. Greene, J. Simpson, A. Jeffery, K. Ogletree, or J. Baldwin?

    Thanks!
    KG

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    • welcome kevin, i like simpson or jeffery over the others ..greene sound like will lose touches..

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  40. Should have mentioned: 1/2 PPR for the previous flex spot dilemma in my 14 team league.

    Also thinking of benching D. Murray for Ryan Williams as flex in my other 10 team league, already starting J. Charles and R. Matthews. Have Mikel Leshoure on the bench too.

    Thoughts? Thanks again!

    KG

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    • think i would start murray over williams he only needs a little hole and he is gone ..he will get on track..

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  41. Frequent visitor, love the content.

    Should I pull the trigger on giving up Sproles, Jennings and Andre Brown (NYG) for Forte & Jimmy Graham?

    I would use your trade machine, but I can insert a 3rd player. Thanks for the help.

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    • welcome D wood, this is a question to take over to the forum and get mulitple response that will answer your question throughly..i would want forte and graham for that..heck yes…

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  42. Hey guys. In a bind at wide receiver as I have Britt and Garcon as my WR2 with no other backup. What kind of production would you expect at this point IF they suit up? Would you roll the dice or pick someone off waivers (Lafell or Mike Williams). I would most likely have to drop Greg Olsen or Owen Daniels. Thanks for the help!

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