My input on the complaints

I just got done reading the comments on the Projections tab, and was pretty disappointed. Like the culture of politics in our country, everyone is up for the "blame game". In what has easily been the biggest freak show of a fantasy season I've ever seen, people are frustrated that certain things didn't work out. There seems to be some confusion about how to play fantasy football, and what this site and its members do, so I wanted to clarify:

1. Upside players are just that. They are guys who an expert believes will turn into a better value than where their current ADP ranks them based on a variety of factors, skill, change in offense, change in coaching staff, change in opportunity, or limited past production. David Wilson was an upside player this year because NYG did nothing to change it's RB situation in the offseason and Wilson showed AMAZING talent late last year and this preseason (We all forgot about his 86 yard TD against the Cowboys that made them look like a college team??), and he could be drafted in the 4th or so with realistic expectations to get 1300 yards and 8 tds. On the flipside, Trent Richardson had no upside value this year. He was being drafted in the first, and expected to perform in the first, and already performed last year. If he doesn't this year he is a bust. However, David Wilson or Lamar Miller cannot be considered "busts". They were drafted in the 4th or 5th of most redrafts with expectations to perform as a 1st or 2nd rounder. HOWEVER, there was no PROVEN history of performance from these players. Upside players cannot be considered "busts". People who take them must understand the risk involved. If there was no risk to an upside player, he'd be a 1st rounder, not a 4th or 5th rounder.

2. Upside players win leagues. Teams that do not take risks do not win leagues. Most seasons, most teams will draft at least 1 bust in the first or second round, from proven players like Ray Rice who slide in performance to other guys like Julio Jones who break a foot and go on IR. Knowing this, if all your players from rounds 3-15 perform to their ADP (going Safe), you will be behind the guys who did not bust with their 1st or 2nd round picks. Shane Vereen would have won leagues if he didn't get hurt. Knowshon Moreno will win as many leagues this year as Alfred Morris did last year. Looking at my redrafts, the teams that drafted the safest with proven players are in as much trouble as teams that took Wilson in the 3rd or 4th.

3. Each individual GM needs to gauge his risk. If you do not have risk tolerance, you should not be drafting 4-7 upside players from Smitty's board, then blaming him or other forum members for your lack of success.

4. By the same token, every team needs a bit of risk. GMs who went Rice, Fitz, Sjax, and Cruz in the first 4 rounds are probably as bad off if not worse than teams that drafted Wilson, or took a risk on Forte even though he was an often hated player in fantasy circles, or spent a 1st on Dez above his 2nd round ADP.

5. We cannot control Fantasy Football. Nobody, regardless of how much research, trade talk, youtube highlights, or whatever, can predict that Julio will break his foot again. Or that Doug Martin will average less than 3 ypc one year after averaging 5. My ultimate, indisputable proof of this is the fact that Knowshon Moreno is the #4 scoring RB and playing the best football of his career. The only person on this planet who saw that coming was Moreno's mother, and I'm thinking she doesn't play fantasy football. I'm in a league where I came in with Brees, Martin, Forte, Calvin, Green, and Julio and got Julius Thomas in the 2nd and Moreno in the 5th of the rookie draft. I am sitting at 5-1 where I expected to be this time of season, but not because of my roster before the draft, it's because I took Smitty's advice and grabbed Julius, and I FLAT OUT GOT LUCKY taking Moreno in the 5th. Without those two guys, I would be 2-3 with one of the best teams I've ever seen.

6. Busts occur every year. Breakouts occur every year. Sophomore slumps happen every year. Steve Slaton is not an anomaly. If you cannot deal with it, you should not be playing Fantasy Football. Blaming yourself or others for your team's performance is probably indicative of a bigger addiction problem.

7. To blame DraftCalc for Lamar Miller and David Wilson not working out is ridiculous. Both were #1 on the depth chart when you had your draft, and both play the most important position in fantasy. Only a fool would ignore them at their preseason ADPs.

Fantasy Football is fun because of the unknowns, and the excitement of "getting it right". But if someone was able to "get it right" all the time, Fantasy Football would not be fun. It would be like buying a video game and the strategy guide and not even attempting to solve anything on your own. This is an inexact science, and nobody has the power to change it or predict it.

Smitty, I ENCOURAGE you to keep up with the upside board in future years. Maybe as someone in the comments suggested, you need to clarify a target round, or maybe a risk scale, so people understand it better, but I think the guys who play fantasy alot understand the upside board and its risks/rewards as well as how to draft a team around "upside players"

Well stated

Amen..... =D> Those who blame others for their demise need only look in the mirror.

Well said, I find it sad how much flak people like Smitty and Matthew Berry take on a weekly basis from ignorant and rude people who think fantasy experts are damn psychics...this internet culture is ridiculous, people say things on websites they wouldn't dare say to someone face-to-face...very cowardly and absurd imo...it annoys me greatly

Preach on brother! \m/

Well stated Fonts. Couldnt agree more.

Haters gonna hate. From the wise Kat Williams and edited for the children:

"Live your life. You gotta get your hustle. Understand (people) is gonna hate you regardless, get that out of your head that fantasy world where (people) ain't hating on you. You gotta to be grateful, you need haters, wtf is you complaining about, wtf do you think a hater's job is?! If you got 14 hating on you, you need to figure out how to get to 16 before the summer get here! If you got nobody to hate on, feel free to hate on me, say my hair ain't luxurious when you know it is bia!"

I still think Pimp Chronicles 2 is so underrated!!!!LOL On a serious note though keep it moving Smitty and ignore the haters.

My biggest problem with people blaming Smitty for bad calls like Wilson & Miller is EVERY SITE known to man had those 2 high. Man even ESPN & NFL network were talking about Miller eventually, thats why by draft time they were in the 2nd & 3rd round. I don't care what site you used they had them listed.

The only difference? Smitty had these guys listed when Miller was going 5th - 6th instead of the 3rd. So you should be thanking Smitty that he was on them early so you didn't have to invest as must as you would other places.

Get out of my head Fonts...Great stuff. I have been out of the "advise" business on this site for a few weeks now because Im sick of the abies playing the blame game. Hopefully I get re-motivated at some point.

A masterpiece Fontaines - and I will add, anyone looking for someone to tell them who to get and then blame them if it doesn't pan out is just being lazy!

Here's the proper way to maximize Draft-Calc:

Formulate your own opinions - cross-check them by watching the tape, reading Smitty's takes and rankings, studying the player measurables, bouncing it off other minds in the forum, double check with other experts, make your final decision, AND THEN OWN IT!

The fun of this game is the research, analysis and uncovering gems perhaps others didn't see! I get far more enjoyment from being bold, taking the risk and reaping the rewards or getting smacked down than just winning games! Winning games is all timing and a lot of luck! Finding gems takes hard work and some analytical skill - far more rewarding!

Get perspective, don't blame, own your decisions, enjoy the greatest game on earth bar none!

Here, here! Well said.

LukeB5301 said:

My biggest problem with people blaming Smitty for bad calls like Wilson & Miller is EVERY SITE known to man had those 2 high.

Not to mention that every person that drafted Wilson, Ball or Miller felt the exact same way Smitty, myself or anyone else here at DC felt about them too or they wouldnt have drafted them in the 1st place. How do you point fingers at someone for believing something when you believed it too?

I traded Brandon Marshall for Wilson and a 2014 1st. Obviously that didn't work out well, but I was weak at RB and truly thought Wilson was going to breakout due to a large amount of separate factors including Smitty's advice. Did Wilson break out a reward me for that trade? No. But I'm the one that made that decision and took the risk hoping that it would work. No one from this site hit accept for me. You have to make these decisions on your own and take the consequences, good or bad.

I did trade Ingram, Britt, and DMC for Hopkins, Vereen and Pierce and am still pretty happy about the future of that deal.

Regardless of what happened, I love this site, the upside board and the advice of the community. So thanks to everyone, including Katt Williams.

Great write up fonts! I don't understand why anyone would want to play fantasy, if all they were gonna do was draft someone else's team. You draft your team full of players you believe in...otherwise it's just kinda meh..if you drafted Wilson and miller you either need to realize that you need to start taking responsibility for your decisions or at least decide to start making INFORMED decisions...not just being smitty (or anyone else's) puppet. No hate here smitty.

JRMRRT said:

Get out of my head Fonts...Great stuff. I have been out of the "advise" business on this site for a few weeks now because Im sick of the abies playing the blame game. Hopefully I get re-motivated at some point.

We need you here brother...

Very very well said Fontaines, Smitty keep the upside Board coming please!

Fonts, great write-up and totally agree. I am having a miserable start due to a few under performing players, a few upside guys not producing and some plain bad luck. I absolutely LOVED my cookie league teams though. On paper, there was no way I could lose and yet here I am, scrambling for respectability and the opportunity to make the playoffs.

Those whiners in that thread are ridiculous. They are the same guys tweeting Ray Rice/Matt Schaub about their performance.

Smitty, your skin is thicker than mine. I appreciate the community you have put together. I personally enjoy the dialogue and banter with one exception....

bmxholden1's insipid use of the exclamation mark and his love for Ivory :P

On the plus side, I love his willingness to stick with his opinion.

Keep it up guys. You, too, JR.

Thanks, Fonts and everyone! We still have a lot of season left, but if I miss more than normal this year, I guess it's bound to happen. Not to say I'm ever hitting everything, because I'M NOT, but to have just one really mediocre year on the Bold Predictions front is probably expected every half a dozen years.

I like the idea of defining where to take guys more, something I did do in the write ups at times, but to make it way more clear sounds solid. I also may stick to making the Upside Board being truly all upside with little risk.. meaning, Wilson as a 2nd round will likely not make it next year. Dez as a 4th and 5th rounder in 2012 was gold, because even if he missed, he would have EASILY earned 4th to 5th round value. So, next year, Upside Board picks will either win you a championship, or help, or if they miss teams won't lose much at all, as the investment will be smaller. That's the tweak I'll make to it.

Thanks for the support, DC Nation.

Here's where I think some guys get derailed Smitty:

They see your rankings with the upside guys placed in with all of the other guys and are unable to determine what that means come draft day. This type of clarification will help those folks who are simply looking for someone to help them select guys in the proper order. There are a TON of these type players.

I've been using Smitty's rankings for drafts for years. We can all get angry that he missed one, but for every one that he missed, he hits another 5 on the money.

I've been a playoff team 5 of the last 6 years including back to back title game losses (Damn you Eli Manning & Mario Manningham!!!). His upside and breakout pieces are simply put awesome. Sucks that I can't tell my friends about it though because I don't want them to know my secret even though Smitty deserves all the recognition and pub

Thanks, fellas.

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